L. Guillermo Woo-Mora
Economics PhD candidate at PSE
guillermo.woo-mora [at] psemail.eu
Publications
Infrastructures of Race? Colonial Indigenous Segregation and Contemporary Land Values with Luis Baldomero-Quintana and Enrique de la Rosa-Ramos.
Regional Science and Urban Economics, January 2025, Volume 110, 104065.
Image credit: Archivo General de la NaciĂłn: Molinos de azĂşcar, Tacubaya. Distrito Federal, 1587.
Abstract
We investigate the persistent impact of a colonial segregation policy on land values in modern Mexico City. During colonial times, Indigenous communities were confined, with varying degrees of success, to settlements known as pueblos de indios. Using historical records, we exploit quasi-random variation due to the pueblos’ catchment areas and use a Regression Discontinuity Design to estimate the causal effects of pueblos on land prices. We find a 5% land value penalty for areas affected by the colonial policy. The penalty is exacerbated for the pueblos formerly inhabited exclusively by Indigenous populations. Historical evidence and novel digitized maps reveal that these land value penalties have been driven over the past two centuries by low public goods provision, negative economic expectations, and the historical sorting of working-class individuals who built small housing structures that are second-nature factors. Moreover, in contemporary data, we observe discontinuities in housing overcrowding and public goods quality within the pueblos’ catchment areas. Our results underscore the repercussions of colonial policies on contemporary spatial equilibria, clarifying the mechanisms driving historical persistence and offering implications for urban policies.
Sir Alec Cairncross Prize Runner Up - Scottish Econometric Society 2022
Arthur H. Cole Grant of the Economic History Association
[Pueblos de Indios in CDMX] [NotebookLM] [Replication] [Ungated pdf]
Media: VoxDev (en).
Populism’s Original Sin: Short-term Populist Penalties and Uncertainty Traps
European Economic Review, February 2025, Volume 172, 104917.
Image credit: New York Times
Abstract
This paper investigates the immediate economic impacts of populist policies. In 2018, the Mexican president-elect held an unofficial referendum with less than 1% turnout to halt the construction of Mexico City’s New International Airport. I show the policy is plausibly a natural experiment with nationwide impacts, preceding other macroeconomic shocks and populist policies dismantling economic and institutional checks. Using the synthetic control method, I find a 3.3% to 4.5% GDP reduction one year post-cancellation. Consistent with the uncertainty trap framework, this decline is due to heightened economic uncertainty and a significant drop in investment, reinforcing each other and leading to a prolonged economic downturn. The results highlight how populist policies can impose immediate economic costs by creating uncertainty traps, even before implementing institutional changes.
Premio Manuel Espinosa Yglesias - Centro de Estudios Espinosa Yglesias (CEEY)
[Updated GDP Estimates] [NotebookLM] [Replication] [Ungated]
Media: VoxEU (en), Nexos (es), El Universal (es), Este PaĂs (es), Arena PĂşblica (es). Featured in Suerte o desastre by Isabella Cota.
Working Papers
Unveiling the Cosmic Race: Intergenerational Skin Tone Gaps in Latin America and the Caribbean. Under review.
Image credit: Cuadro de castas - Unknown artist, Museo Nacional del Virreinato
Abstract
Can traditional ethnoracial categories fully capture the economic disparities arising from physical traits, particularly within racially mixed populations in Latin America? This paper examines how skin tone shapes intergenerational economic disparities using data from over 80,000 individuals across 25 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. I present new descriptive evidence in three areas. First, I demonstrate that variations in skin tone within ethnoracial groups, such as Mestizos and Mulatos, account for income and education differences that are often overlooked by broader racial classifications. Second, I find a consistent negative correlation between darker skin tones and both income and human capital accumulation. Third, I reveal significant absolute gaps in intergenerational educational mobility by skin tone, highlighting persistent inequalities. These disparities in human capital and educational mobility remain robust when tested with a Mexican sample using machine-assessed skin tone measures from colorimeters. These findings contribute to the understanding of long-standing racial inequalities in the region and offer insights for broader discussions on race, mobility, and social identity.
[WIL Working Paper] [NotebookLM Podcast]
Media: 5 papers…in 5 minutes! (en, fr), WIL Press release (en), Nexos (es).
Moral Force: Leaders’ Actions and Public Health Compliance in Crisis with MarĂa Montoya-Aguirre, Federico Daverio, and Max Ponce de LeĂłn.
Under review.
Image credit: Luis Antonio Rojas for The New York Times
Abstract
Charismatic leaders shape public sentiment but may undermine institutions by prioritizing personal appeal over institutional trust. During COVID-19, the Mexican president publicly dismissed stay-at-home guidelines. We use an event-study design to examine his example’s effect on his partisanship’s social distancing by combining granular out-of-home mobility and electoral data. After accounting for differences in political support, pro-government geographies increase their within-city mobility. Moreover, in the first two months, pro-government municipalities have 16% higher mobility, causing 46% more COVID-19 cases and 50% more deaths. Our findings suggest the president’s actions, not partisan divides, shaped social distancing behavior and public health outcomes.
Skin Tone Penalties: Bottom-up Discrimination in Football with Donia Kamel.
New draft coming soon!
Image credit: IMAGO / Colorsport
Abstract
This paper investigates colorism, racial discrimination based on skin color, in men's football. Firstly, using machine learning algorithms, we extract players' skin tones from online headshots to examine their impact on fan-based ratings and valuations. We find evidence of a skin tone penalty, where darker-skinned players face lower fan-driven market values and ratings. Secondly, using algorithm-based ratings and employing a Difference-in-Discontinuities design with geolocated penalty kicks data, we show that lighter-skinned players enjoy a premium higher by one standard deviation than their darker-skinned peers, conditional on scoring a penalty. Additionally, we find evidence that non-native players with dark skin face a double penalty. Leveraging the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment, we highlight the role of fans' stadium attendance in algorithm-based results. The findings underscore direct skin tone discrimination in football and highlight fans' role in perpetuating algorithmic bias.
Embracing modernity pays: Cadastre modernization effects on local property tax collection with MarĂa Montoya-Aguirre and Emmanuel Chávez.
Image credit: SuperMap
Abstract
This paper investigates the impact of the Mexican cadastre modernization program on local property tax revenue. We evaluate a comprehensive modernization initiative, which began in 2010 and included guidelines, technical assistance, and subsidies for local cadastres. Using panel data from 2000 to 2019 and a Difference-in-Differences approach, we find that municipalities adopting the program saw a 10% increase in property tax revenue within five years, rising to 30% after eight years. This effect varies significantly with local state capacity and the coordinating institution implementing the program. The program significantly enhances the state of local cadastres over the long-term. Municipalities that adopt the program are more likely to invest in staff training, implement comprehensive cadastral management systems, and digitize their registries. Our results highlight the importance of local capacities and coordination in realizing the benefits of decentralization and modernization policies.
Research Grant Descentralización y Capacidades Subnacionales en América Latina y el Caribe – CAF
Work in Progress
Draft coming soon!
Reserach Grant: Inequality over the life course – UNU-WIDER
Honorific Mention Fernando Rosenzweig Prize Graduate Thesis – Mexican Economic History Association 2021
Best Graduate Thesis in Applied Economics – CIDE 2020
Media: Territorio (es).
New Echoes of Deep Mexico? Present and Persistent Elements of Indigenous Identities with Pedro Torres LĂłpez.
Draft coming soon!
Chapter prepared for the second volume of the book “Roots of Underdevelopment: A New Economic (and Political) History of Latin America and the Caribbean” edited by Felipe Valencia Caicedo.
Resting Papers
Preferences for Redistribution in the Land of Inequalities: Experimental and Observational Evidence from Mexico
with Eva O. Arceo-Gómez and Hernán Bejarano
First Place Undergraduate Thesis – Citibanamex Economics Prize 2019