Research

Working Papers

Infrastructures of Race? Colonial Indigenous Segregation and Contemporary Land Values with Luis Baldomero-Quintana and Enrique de la Rosa-Ramos.
Revise and Resubmit at Regional Science and Urban Economics.

Abstract

We investigate the persistent impact of a colonial segregation policy on land values in modern Mexico City. During colonial times, Indigenous communities were confined, with varying degrees of success, to settlements known as pueblos de indios. Using historical records, we exploit quasi-random variation due to the pueblos' catchment areas and use a Regression Discontinuity Design to estimate the causal effects of pueblos on land prices. We find a 5% land value penalty for areas affected by the colonial policy. The penalty is exacerbated for the pueblos formerly inhabited exclusively by Indigenous populations. Historical evidence and novel digitized maps reveal that these land value penalties have been driven over the past two centuries by low public goods provision, negative economic expectations, and the historical sorting of working-class individuals who built small housing structures, or second-nature factors. Moreover, in contemporary data, we observe discontinuities in housing overcrowding and public goods quality within the pueblos' catchment areas. Our results underscore the repercussions of colonial policies on contemporary spatial equilibria, clarifying the mechanisms driving historical persistence and offering implications for urban policies.

Sir Alec Cairncross Prize Runner Up - Scottish Econometric Society 2022
Arthur H. Cole Grant of the Economic History Association

Skin Tone Penalties: Bottom-up Discrimination in Football with Donia Kamel.

Abstract

This paper investigates colorism, racial discrimination based on skin color, in men's football. Firstly, using machine learning algorithms, we extract players' skin tones from online headshots to examine their impact on fan-based ratings and valuations. We find evidence of a skin tone penalty, where darker-skinned players face lower fan-driven market values and ratings. Secondly, using algorithm-based ratings and employing a Difference-in-Discontinuities design with geolocated penalty kicks data, we show that lighter-skinned players enjoy a premium higher by one standard deviation than their darker-skinned peers, conditional on scoring a penalty. Additionally, we find evidence that non-native players with dark skin face a double penalty. Leveraging the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment, we highlight the role of fans' stadium attendance in algorithm-based results. The findings underscore direct skin tone discrimination in football and highlight fans' role in perpetuating algorithmic bias.

Unveiling the Cosmic Race: Skin Tone Disparities in Latin America.

Abstract

Could physical traits drive racial inequalities rather than ethnoracial identities? This paper investigates descriptive skin tone-based disparities across 25 Latin American countries. Using a nine-tone color palette, darker skin tones correlate with lower household income per capita, fewer years of schooling, and a 2 percentage point decrease in upward educational mobility. The direct and indirect skin tone disparities persist after bounding the estimates for unobserved heterogeneity. The skin tone gradients are present across different ethnoracial and gender groups and vary widely across countries. Oaxaca-Blinder decompositions suggest that discrimination likely drives a substantial portion of these gaps.

WIL Working Paper

Coverage: 5 papers…in 5 minutes! (en, fr), WIL Press release (en), Nexos (es).

Populism’s Original Sin: Short-term Populist Penalties and Uncertainty Traps
Revise and Resubmit at European Economic Review.

Abstract

This paper investigates the immediate economic impacts of populist policies. In 2018, the Mexican president-elect held an unofficial referendum with less than 1% turnout to halt the construction of Mexico City's New International Airport. I show that the policy is plausibly a natural experiment with nationwide impacts, preceding other macroeconomic shocks and populist policies dismantling economic and institutional checks. Using the synthetic control method, I find a 3% to 4% GDP reduction one year post-cancellation. Consistent with the uncertainty trap framework, this decline is due to heightened economic uncertainty and a significant drop in investment, reinforcing each other and leading to a prolonged economic downturn.

Premio Manuel Espinosa Yglesias - Centro de Estudios Espinosa Yglesias (CEEY)

Coverage: Este País (es).

Work in Progress

On the Other Side of the Creek: Historical exclusion, local identity and human capital accumulation

Draft coming soon!

Honorific Mention Fernando Rosenzweig Prize Graduate Thesis – Mexican Economic History Association 2021
Best Graduate Thesis in Applied Economics – CIDE 2020

Coverage: Territorio (es).

New Echoes of Deep Mexico? Present and Persistent Elements of Indigenous Identities with Pedro Torres López.

Draft coming soon!

Chapter prepared for the second volume of the book “Roots of Underdevelopment: A New Economic (and Political) History of Latin America and the Caribbean” edited by Felipe Valencia Caicedo.

Resting Papers

Preferences for Redistribution in the Land of Inequalities: Experimental and Observational Evidence from Mexico
with Eva O. Arceo-Gómez and Hernán Bejarano

First Place Undergraduate Thesis – Citibanamex Economics Prize 2019